Sweetness Follows in Finance

Religion, philosophy, politics, and health are my usual topics of expertise, but finance can hardly be avoided in these troubled times. As of 23/03/2020 the ASX 200 is sitting at around 4500. Just like in 2012. If that already seems terrible, imagine that we were nearly at 7000 in 2007 and actually surpassed 7000 for the first time just very recently. In 13 years, stocks overall have gone down, a lot. I started warning about a big stock market crash around 2016/2017 and am thinking this is it. This seems to be the coronavirus acting as the needle to pop the overinflated debt-fuelled bubble, with coronavirus being way more serious than a mere catalyst, and causing a significant crash in its own right due to the effects it is having on the economy. So is this crash all about the coronavirus and we can expect the market to crash even worse when the bubble finally pops, or are we seeing a bit of both right now? I don't know. Will the market start rebounding hard very soon or will it continue to decline over the next 1-2 years? I don't know. How low will they go? I don't know. When should we sell and buy shares? I don't know. What I do know is that a few years ago I decided to avoid buying shares, as they were too expensive. Some of you did likewise. And we also know that shares right now are cheaper than they were.

The heck? ‪#‎allthingsmustpass‬ ‪#‎hangintherekitty

As such, I am preparing to get back in. Should we go all in now, in case the evil coronavirus troops are single-handedly defeated by God-Emperor Trump? I don't know. Should we wait 1, or even 2, years to make sure we have hit the bottom? I don't know. What I do know is that it is very hard to predict tops and bottoms, and missing out on the market's biggest rebounds are painful. So I'll probably dip the toe in little by little, eventually being fully invested again within 2 years. You might consider something similar for yourself. And while many of us will get through this, and maybe even profit from it, spare a thought for those that need to liquidate at this low point for retirement funds, and if this is much more than 'just a market crash', for the many who will lose their jobs, and the many who already don't have one. Thanks Obama.

Raphael Lataster 2020